The five-year income statement, recomputed as you read it.
Every number below is derived from one typed model. Flip the scenario and the whole statement re-derives, because only the primitive inputs are stored and every line, every margin, every chart is computed off them. Nothing here is hand-entered downstream of the assumption.
The scenarios diverge on one measured input, the terminal cross-tenant cache-hit rate. Currently viewing the Base case.
In the Base case the model crosses EBITDA breakeven in Year 4, on a blended gross margin of 82.4% across the horizon. Five-year totals: revenue $94.0M, EBITDA $31.3M, net income $21.1M.
The range is wide on purpose.
The active scenario is drawn solid; the other two sit behind it. The spread is the honest expression of a single measurable variable that has not yet printed at scale.
Five-year income statement · Base case
| Line item | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | 5-yr total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $280K | $1.9M | $7.9M | $24.5M | $59.4M | $94.0M |
| Builder royalty | ($30K) | ($200K) | ($900K) | ($3.0M) | ($6.0M) | ($10.1M) |
| Net revenue after participation | $250K | $1.7M | $7.0M | $21.5M | $53.4M | $83.8M |
| Cost of revenue (compute, after cache) | ($154K) | ($798K) | ($2.4M) | ($4.9M) | ($8.3M) | ($16.5M) |
| Gross profit | $126K | $1.1M | $5.5M | $19.6M | $51.1M | $77.4M |
| Gross margin | 45% | 58.0% | 70% | 80% | 86% | 82.4% |
| Payroll | ($900K) | ($1.8M) | ($3.2M) | ($5.2M) | ($9.0M) | ($20.1M) |
| Marketing | ($250K) | ($500K) | ($1.2M) | ($2.2M) | ($3.5M) | ($7.7M) |
| Referral CAC | ($46K) | ($102K) | ($430K) | ($1.3M) | ($2.6M) | ($4.5M) |
| R&D, G&A and infrastructure | ($100K) | ($200K) | ($400K) | ($1.0M) | ($2.1M) | ($3.8M) |
| EBITDA | ($1.2M) | ($1.7M) | ($600K) | $6.9M | $27.9M | $31.3M |
| EBITDA margin | -428.6% | -89.5% | -7.6% | 28% | 47% | 33.3% |
| Depreciation & amortization | ($300K) | ($500K) | ($700K) | ($900K) | ($1.2M) | ($3.6M) |
| Tax | $0 | $0 | $0 | ($960K) | ($5.6M) | ($6.6M) |
| Net income | ($1.5M) | ($2.2M) | ($1.3M) | $5.0M | $21.1M | $21.1M |
| Net margin | -535.7% | -115.8% | -16.5% | 20.4% | 35.5% | 22.5% |
Costs shown in accounting parentheses. Every figure derives from the Base branch of the typed model; indicative and refresh-required against the live 12-tab sheet. Net revenue after participation is a memo line; gross profit is revenue less cost of revenue.
Where the revenue comes from, and where it is heading.
By plan tier and by revenue stream, resolved to the active scenario. The community tier carries no revenue by design; it is the cache-priming flywheel. The shift over the horizon is from access and per-run spread toward the durable, non-deflating layer.
By plan tier
| Series | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | 5-yr total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Community (free) | — | — | — | — | — | $0 |
| Pro | $160K | $1.0M | $3.8M | $11.0M | $25.4M | $41.4M |
| Team | $80K | $600K | $2.7M | $8.5M | $22.0M | $33.9M |
| Enterprise | $40K | $300K | $1.4M | $5.0M | $12.0M | $18.7M |
By revenue stream
| Series | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | 5-yr total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metered compute margin | $120K | $800K | $3.2M | $9.8M | $23.4M | $37.3M |
| Subscriptions | $100K | $700K | $2.9M | $8.5M | $20.5M | $32.7M |
| Marketplace take | $20K | $200K | $900K | $3.2M | $8.5M | $12.8M |
| Enterprise licensing | $40K | $200K | $900K | $3.0M | $7.0M | $11.1M |
Gross margin rises without a price change.
In most usage-metered software, gross margin is roughly flat, because cost of revenue scales with usage. Here it climbs, because a rising share of served work is a cache hit, and a cache hit costs a small fraction of a fresh recompute. The compute line falls from the low-forties percent of revenue toward the low single digits, and that fall is the entire margin story.
- Y1 gross margin
- 45%
- Y5 gross margin
- 86%
Gross / EBITDA / net margin, Base
Operating cost stack, Base
Costs scale with the business, not ahead of it.
Four lines carry the operating build: payroll, marketing, the referral CAC, and the R&D/G&A/infrastructure line. The referral is modeled to grow with revenue rather than ahead of it, because a self-liquidating cost cannot outrun the revenue it is a fraction of. R&D stays the largest line throughout, consistent with building an open standard and an execution harness rather than a marketing-led application.
- Payroll$20.1M
- Marketing$7.7M
- Referral CAC$4.5M
- R&D, G&A, infra$3.8M
The parties who create value share in it, without eroding margin.
Two earning mechanisms appear as explicit cost lines. The builder royalty is a pass-through against the run's outcome price; the referral payout is self-liquidating CAC funded from margin. Both are shown here at the Base case, alongside the Light Brands net after participation. New earners are funded from the company's own margin, never by clawing back what an existing earner has already received.
| Line | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | 5-yr total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Builder royalty pool | $30K | $200K | $900K | $3.0M | $6.0M | $10.1M |
| Referral payouts | $46K | $102K | $430K | $1.3M | $2.6M | $4.5M |
| Light Brands net after participation | $204K | $1.6M | $6.6M | $20.2M | $50.8M | $79.3M |
Shape and totals only; internal split points are not shown. Indicative and refresh-required.
The cash trough is shallow, and breakeven is early.
EBITDA bars run red while the company invests ahead of revenue, then turn emerald once operating leverage arrives. The margin line on the right axis is the same story in percent. The business is not asking to be funded through a long march to profitability; it is asking to be funded to prove a measurable network effect that, once proven, produces the margins shown.
Modest early losses, then compounding.
The area below tracks cumulative net income across the horizon for the Base case. The early losses are near-identical across scenarios, because the early spend is committed regardless of how the curve prints; the divergence appears from Year 3 as the cache either compounds or does not.
Cumulative net income, Base
One number moves everything above.
The terminal cross-tenant cache-hit rate sets gross margin, sets revenue durability, and sets the valuation band. The Base case assumes it ramps as follows across the five years. It is measured, not asserted: the shipped observatory instruments it on live production traffic.
| Year 5 metric | Conservative | Base | Aggressive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.1M | $59.4M | $177.6M |
| ARR (exit run-rate) | $32.1M | $79.2M | $236.8M |
| Gross margin | 83% | 86% | 88% |
| EBITDA margin | 27% | 47% | 52% |
| Terminal cache-hit rate | 30% | 40% | 55% |
| Net income | $4.2M | $21.1M | $70.5M |
The active scenario is highlighted. The downside is a profitable, growing software company; the upside is a category network. That gap is the value of the one number, quantified.